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As we write this letter today, the domestic oil and gas industry
is facing a perplexing environment. Natural gas storage levels have
declined from the record high levels of this past summer to record
low levels today. While the U.S. has experienced higher heating-related
demand than recent norms during the past heating season, this drastic
change of circumstance is mainly the result of declining domestic
natural gas production. Declining gas production and storage levels
have led to robust natural gas prices, but have not yet led to dramatic
increases in drilling activity.
Declining domestic natural gas production may well be an irreversible
trend. Overall decline rates for natural gas production have increased
to as much as 30% per year. While the level of gas-related drilling
rig activity is well below the recent record levels of 2001, gas-related
drilling activity is still above levels experienced during the 1990s.
Yet gas production continues to decline.
Domestic natural gas prices are of course impacted by oil prices.
While we don't expect that recent oil prices of up to $39 per barrel
are sustainable, we do believe OPEC has signaled its intent to target
oil prices of at least $25 per barrel. On a BTU-equivalent basis,
a $25 oil price can support a domestic natural gas price of $4 per
mcf and perhaps higher when the environmental benefits of natural
gas are considered. Taken together with the high decline rates for
existing production, natural gas prices of $4 or even more seem
both sustainable and even necessary to encourage reserve development.
In what should be a terrific environment for a U.S. natural gas
producer, why has there not been more drilling activity? There are
various current theories including: lack of capital, refocusing
of the majors to international markets, and a current lack of domestic
drilling prospects. We believe all of the above are contributing
factors.
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However, we also believe that drilling activity will soon increase
in response to price incentives but that, at best, increased drilling
will only stabilize gas supply. We believe domestic natural gas
prices will therefore be sustained within a higher price band (perhaps
around $4 per mcf) than we have experienced historically.
Carrizo should fare well in such an environment. Our continued
exploration focus has led to a growing prospect inventory. We create
value with the drillbit, which gives us the opportunity to achieve
above average growth rates of reserves and production without depending
on the property acquisition market. With industry currently lacking
a deep inventory of drilling prospects, we believe Carrizo's inherent
value continues to increase.
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Consistent with our bullish view of the domestic natural gas
fundamentals, our operating strategy has remained constant.
Its key elements:
- A geographic focus in proven geologic
trends throughout the onshore Gulf Coast region.
- Control and a high ownership interest
(in many cases I 00%) in both the data and land positions
that comprise our prospect inventory.
- Continually increasing the size and quality
of our prospect inventory through acquisition of 3-D seismic
data and land, as well as constant reinterpretation through
use of fundamental geologic studies and sophisticated geophysical
interpretive techniques.
- Sizing our drilling program to enable
management to sell down enough interest in specific prospects
to mitigate risk and improve economics, but yet maintain
operatorship of these drilling prospects in the context
of a drilling budget which does not exceed our internally
generated cash flow.
- Maintaining maximum possible ownership
of our highest potential drilling prospects, typically deeper
targets.
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