the availability of leases and permits on
reasonable terms for the prospects.
Although we have identified or budgeted
for numerous drilling prospects, we may not be able to lease or
drill those prospects within our expected time frame or at all.
Wells that are currently part of our capital budget may be based
on statistical results of drilling activities in other 3-D project
areas that we believe are geologically similar rather than on analysis
of seismic or other data in the prospect area, in which case actual
drilling and results are likely to vary, possibly materially, from
those statistical results. In addition, our drilling schedule may
vary from our expectations because of future uncertainties.
OUR RESERVE DATA AND ESTIMATED DISCOUNTED
FUTURE NET CASH FLOWS ARE ESTIMATES BASED ON ASSUMPTIONS THAT MAY
BE INACCURATE AND ARE BASED ON EXISTING ECONOMIC AND OPERATING CONDITIONS
THAT MAY CHANGE IN THE FUTURE.
There are numerous uncertainties inherent
in estimating natural gas and oil reserves and their estimated value,
including many factors beyond the control of the producer. The reserve
data set forth in this Form 10-K represents only estimates. Reservoir
engineering is a subjective and inexact process of estimating underground
accumulations of natural gas and oil that cannot be measured in
an exact manner. The reserve data included in or filed as an exhibit
to this Form 10-K represents estimates that depend on a number of
factors and assumptions that may vary considerably from actual results,
including:
- historical production from the
area compared with production from other areas;
- the assumed effects of regulations by
governmental agencies;
- assumptions concerning future natural
gas and oil prices;
- future operating costs;
- severance and excise taxes;
- development costs; and
- workover and remedial costs.
For these reasons, estimates of the economically
recoverable quantities of natural gas and oil attributable to any
particular group of properties, classifications of those reserves
based on risk of recovery and estimates of the future net cash flows
expected from them prepared by different engineers or by the same
engineers but at different times may vary substantially. Accordingly,
reserve estimates may be subject to upward or downward adjustment,
and actual production, revenue and expenditures with respect to
our reserves likely will vary, possibly materially, from estimates.
As of December 31, 2003, approximately
64% of our proved reserves were either proved undeveloped or proved
nonproducing. Moreover, some of the producing wells included in
our reserve reports as of December 31, 2003 had produced for a relatively
short period of time as of that date. Because most of our reserve
estimates are calculated using volumetric analysis, those estimates
are less reliable than estimates based on a lengthy production history.
Volumetric analysis involves estimating the volume of a reservoir
based on the net feet of pay of the structure and an estimation
of the area covered by the structure based on seismic analysis.
In addition, realization or recognition of our proved undeveloped
reserves will depend on our development schedule and plans. Lack
of certainty with respect to development plans for proved undeveloped
reserves could cause the discontinuation of the classification of
these reserves as proved. We have from time to time chosen to delay
development of our proved undeveloped reserves in the Camp Hill
Field in East Texas in favor of pursuing shorter-term exploration
projects with higher potential rates of return, adding to our lease
position in this field and further evaluating additional economic
enhancements for this field's development.
The discounted future net cash flows included
in this Form 10-K are not necessarily the same as the current market
value of our estimated natural gas and oil reserves. As required
by the Commission, the estimated discounted future net cash flows
from proved reserves are based on prices and costs as of the date
of the estimate. Actual future net cash flows also will be affected
by factors such as:
- the actual prices we receive for natural
gas and oil;
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